How the Future predicts Sciene Fiction

Interesting post from a local SF writer david levine who spent time at the Mars research station in Utah (where Jay Scheib also spent time prepping for his show... link below, really great photos and info)

link... jay scheib


link... david levine

Excerpt from the Article.

We science fiction writers aren't futurists. SF needn't even be set in the future, and even when it is, we're not necessarily trying to create an accurate model of what we believe is the most likely future—we're just trying to write an entertaining and thought-provoking story. To this end, we'll often create an exaggerated, stylized, or dramatized vision of the future designed either to make a point or simply to provide a more interesting story. Rather than being rigorous attempts at accurate prediction, science fiction futures tend to fall into one or more of the following literary categories:

Cautionary tales emphasize the negative consequences of some aspect of present life. These dystopias are often prompted by the words "If this goes on…"

Thought experiments focus on the possible effects of some current or projected event, technology, or trend. These stories ask the question "What if?" They are distinguished from cautionary tales in that they explore both positive and negative impacts of the trend; they are distinguished from predictions in that they do not necessarily focus on the most likely outcome.

Literalized metaphors examine an aspect of our world by taking a metaphor and making it concrete. Examples include using space aliens to address alienation, using clones to discuss conformity, and using a location on a distant planet as a metaphor for personal isolation. Metaphors such as these are used in non-science fiction as well, of course, but in SF the aliens, clones, or distant planets are literally rather than figuratively present in the world of the story.

Explorations of new science and technology simply use some new advance as the basis of a story. "What's in New Scientist today will be in Analog next year." Often in these stories something goes wrong with the new technology, but this is often done simply to create an exciting story rather than to criticize. An example is Arthur C. Clarke's A Fall of Moondust, which is basically a disaster movie based on the latest theories about the composition of the lunar surface (theories that later turned out to be incorrect).